Monday, February 11, 2013
Hidden Value: The Post-Rondo/Post-Sullinger Celtics
Though Rondo's injury is old news at this point (goodbye 10+ assists per game!) and Jared Sullinger is out for the season, now is the time to re-evaluate the Celtic's roster. By comparing season totals with statistics from the last 6 games, maybe we'll find some hidden value.
Avery Bradley (SG)
Since the Celtics only have 1 point guard on their roster besides Rondo, one would think a guard like Bradley might see an increase in value. Instead his value has stayed about the same. His assists have become a little more consistent, but at 2.5 per game following Rondo's injury I wouldn't say it's anything to be excited about. In the last 6 games his per game stats are 3.5 rbd, 1.2 stl, and 11 pts. His steals and points are a little higher because of the triple-overtime game Sunday so I'm not too excited. Nothing to see here.
Courtney Lee (SG)
Unfortunately you won't find any hidden value here. Since Rondo's injury his 3-pointers are at 0.8/game, assists are 3.2/game, and his points are 10/game. You can find better numbers on your waiver wire from guys like Kyle Korver.
Leandro Barbosa (PG)
His stats still aren't worth owning.
Kevin Garnett (PF, C)
Garnett's per game stats for the season are 7.5 rbd, 2.3 ast, and 15.2 pts on .506 shooting. Since Rondo's injury his per game stats are 9.5 rbd, 3 ast, and 16.8 pts on .530 shooting. So his value has gone up a little bit, but nothing too exciting. These numbers are only based on 6 games and I'm not seeing any major trend increasing Garnett's value. I wouldn't go chasing him.
Paul Pierce (SG, SF)
Pierce is the only one to see any real appreciable increase to his value since Rondo's injury.
His last 6 games: 2.2 3pm, 9.67 rbd, 6.83 ast, 19.17 pts
His stats for the entire season: 1.8 3pm, 6.0 rbd, 4.3 ast, 18.8 pts
Every category has seen an increase. Granted some of this is from that Sunday triple-overtime game, but I believe his stats - especially his assists - will continue to be higher than originally anticipated.
Bottom line, Paul Pierce is the only one to see any real increase in his fantasy value for the Celtics. It's not a secret that Pierce is a fantasy star, but maybe it is a secret that his value is going to increase as the season continues. This exercise was interesting but wasn't as useful as I expected. Still, we might find hidden value as other teams have injuries. The Celtics didn't do what I expected. No one stepped up to take Rondo's production in any real way. He's a great player with elite assists and great steals, but I thought an increase in minutes would bring value to some overlooked player in Boston. This time I was wrong.
Though this exercise proved unfruitful, I believe the process is a good one. Hopefully in the future we will find more useful hidden value.
*Stats from http://www.basketball-reference.com/