If you've been paying attention to 2nd base at all this year you have noticed Matt Carpenter tearing up the ranks. He was ranked low coming into the season (#281 by
ESPN and #194 by CBS). Some of this was due to the fact that he did not have 2nd
base eligibility coming into the season. Some of it had to do with an unproven track
record. But now that he is hitting at the top of the Cardinal's lineup he has lead the
Majors with 100 runs!
I drafted him late this year and have been very happy with his production. Going into
next year, though, where will he be ranked? Robinson Cano still leads 2B in homers
with a high average. Dustin Pedroia still hits for average with good production all
across the board including steals. Jason Kipnis surprised everyone this year with his
production. Ian Kinsler is still good but forecasts call for more time on the DL next
year. Second base is full of mediocrity beyond those guys. To be able to take a
consistent player who can lead the league in runs is very valuable especially at this
position.
This year Carpenter will help many people win their fantasy leagues since he was
taken so late in drafts and has produced well beyond his asking price. Next year I
expect he will go at the value he's worth. Who knows, maybe you'll get him below
value. I still feel like he isn't being talked up as much as he should be.
As of right now I would take Carpenter as the fourth 2B after Cano, Pedroia, and
Kinsler. I have enjoyed the run Kipnis has had this year, but his inconsistency prior to
this year still concerns me.
Friday, August 30, 2013
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Speed Report
We are halfway through the second week of the season. Where are we with the stolen base leaders?
Top 14 base stealers at this point in the year
Top 14 base stealers at this point in the year
- Jacoby Ellsbury (4)
- Andrew McCutchen (4)
- Ben Revere (4)
- Jose Reyes (4)
- Alex Rios (3)
- Michael Saunders (3)
- Chase Utley (3)
- Jimmy Rollins (3)
- Alcides Escobar (3)
- Desmond Jennings (3)
- David Wright (3)
- Craig Gentry (3)
- B.J. Upton (3)
- Josh Reddick (3)
Stolen bases is one of the easiest hitting categories to find for cheap in roto leagues. Hopefully this list will show you some hidden value.
In the coming weeks I will hopefully have season leaders along with weekly leaders so you can snag some guys who are less-owned.
*base stealer leaders comes from www.fangraphs.com
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Shortstop
Below are my shortstop rankings for 2013.
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
- Jose Reyes (BA, R, SB)
- Troy Tulowitzki (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Ian Desmond (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB)
- Hanley Ramirez (R, HR, RBI, SB)
- Starlin Castro (BA, R, SB)
- Ben Zobrist (R, HR, SB)
- Jimmy Rollins (R, HR, SB)
- Elvis Andrus (BA, R, SB)
- Asdrubal Cabrera (BA, RBI)
- Derek Jeter (BA, R)
- J.J. Hardy (R, HR)
- Josh Rutledge (BA, R, HR, SB)
- Erick Aybar (BA, SB)
- Alcides Escobar (R, SB)
- Alexei Ramirez (RBI, SB)
- Everth Cabrera (SB)
- Zack Cozart (R, HR)
- Jhonny Peralta (HR, RBI)
- Jamey Carroll (R)
- Mike Aviles (HR, SB)
- Andrelton Simmons (BA, SB)
- Dee Gordon (SB)
- Jed Lowrie (R, HR, RBI)
- Stephen Drew (R, HR)
- Yunel Escobar (R, RBI)
- 1 Catcher
- 1 First Baseman
- 1 Second Baseman
- 1 Shortstop
- 1 Third Baseman
- 1 Corner Infielder (1B/3B)
- 1 Middle Infielder (2B/SS)
- 1 Utility
- 5 Outfielders
- 9 Pitchers (mixture of Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers)
- 3 Bench Spots
- 1 Disabled List
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
- BA: Batting Average
- -BA: will hurt your overall Batting Average
- R: Runs
- HR: Homes Runs
- RBI: Runs Batted In
- S: Steals
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Being a "Homer"
Do you ever not draft a player because he is on your home team? I'm from Chicago so
I have two teams. I root for the Cubs, but I'm not opposed to White Sox success.
The Cubs are not in contention this year so instead we Cub fans must cheer for the success of individual players. I want to see Starlin Castro take that next step where he puts power and average together (and maybe limit his errors). I want to see Anthony Rizzo become the next Mike Trout. Though I want to see these things I may not see them happen on my fantasy team.
Why? Because I don't want to be accused of being a homer. If you don't know, a homer is someone who thinks his/her team is awesome above all other teams. He looks at his team with rose-colored glasses and laughs at the pathetic excuse for a team everyone else puts on the field. I don't want to be that guy.
But who cares? Fantasy Baseball is meant to be fun! If you want to be a homer and live and die by your home team then do it! If that obscure prospect your team has been selling to you all off-season breaks out this season you know you want him on your team. Go for it!
In my case both Castro and Rizzo are fantasy relevant. Maybe I will reach for them in the draft. I expect big things from both so why not? If the Cubs can't win this year then I might as well win my league with their players ;)
The Cubs are not in contention this year so instead we Cub fans must cheer for the success of individual players. I want to see Starlin Castro take that next step where he puts power and average together (and maybe limit his errors). I want to see Anthony Rizzo become the next Mike Trout. Though I want to see these things I may not see them happen on my fantasy team.
Why? Because I don't want to be accused of being a homer. If you don't know, a homer is someone who thinks his/her team is awesome above all other teams. He looks at his team with rose-colored glasses and laughs at the pathetic excuse for a team everyone else puts on the field. I don't want to be that guy.
But who cares? Fantasy Baseball is meant to be fun! If you want to be a homer and live and die by your home team then do it! If that obscure prospect your team has been selling to you all off-season breaks out this season you know you want him on your team. Go for it!
In my case both Castro and Rizzo are fantasy relevant. Maybe I will reach for them in the draft. I expect big things from both so why not? If the Cubs can't win this year then I might as well win my league with their players ;)
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher
Here are my catcher rankings for 2013.
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
- Buster Posey (BA, HR, RBI) *also eligible at 1B
- Joe Mauer (BA, R, RBI) *also eligible at 1B
- Victor Martinez (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Miguel Montero (BA, HR, RBI)
- Yadier Molina (BA, HR, RBI, SB)
- Wilin Rosario (HR, RBI)
- Carlos Santana (R, HR, RBI, -BA) *also eligible at 1B
- Matt Wieters (HR, RBI, -BA)
- Salvador Perez (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Jesus Montero (HR, RBI, -BA)
- Brian McCann (HR, RBI)
- Mike Napoli (HR, RBI, -BA) *also eligible at 1B
- Carlos Ruiz (BA, HR)
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (HR, -BA)
- Ryan Doumit (ok in all categories) *also eligible at OF
- A.J. Pierzynski (HR)
- A.J. Ellis (ok in all categories)
- Alex Avila (HR, RBI)
- Kurt Suzuki (-BA)
- 1 Catcher
- 1 First Baseman
- 1 Second Baseman
- 1 Shortstop
- 1 Third Baseman
- 1 Corner Infielder (1B/3B)
- 1 Middle Infielder (2B/SS)
- 1 Utility
- 5 Outfielders
- 9 Pitchers (mixture of Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers)
- 3 Bench Spots
- 1 Disabled List
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
- BA: Batting Average
- -BA: will hurt your overall Batting Average
- R: Runs
- HR: Homes Runs
- RBI: Runs Batted In
- S: Steals
Monday, March 4, 2013
2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Third Base
Below are my third base rankings for 2013.
- Miguel Cabrera (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Adrian Beltre (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- David Wright (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB)
- Chase Headley (R, HR, RBI, SB)
- Evan Longoria (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Hanley Ramirez (HR, RBI, SB) *also eligible at SS
- Aramis Ramirez (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Ryan Zimmerman (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- David Freese (BA, HR, RBI)
- Will Middlebrooks (BA, HR, RBI)
- Brett Lawrie (R, HR, SB)
- Martin Prado (BA, R, RBI) *also eligible at OF
- Mike Moustakas (HR)
- Pedro Alvarez (HR, RBI, -BA)
- Kevin Youkilis (HR) *also eligible at 1B
- Chris Johnson (HR)
- Jordan Pacheco (BA)
- Todd Frazier (HR) *also eligible at 1B
- Kyle Seager (HR, SB, -BA)
- Michael Young (BA) *also eligible at 1B
- 1 Catcher
- 1 First Baseman
- 1 Second Baseman
- 1 Shortstop
- 1 Third Baseman
- 1 Corner Infielder (1B/3B)
- 1 Middle Infielder (2B/SS)
- 1 Utility
- 5 Outfielders
- 9 Pitchers (mixture of Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers)
- 3 Bench Spots
- 1 Disabled List
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
- BA: Batting Average
- -BA: will hurt your overall Batting Average
- R: Runs
- HR: Homes Runs
- RBI: Runs Batted In
- S: Steals
*position eligibility based on ESPN's Fantasy Baseball rules
Saturday, March 2, 2013
"We Talk Fantasy Sports" guest post
I recently did a guest blog post on the truth behind spring training stats. Check it out at the link below!
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Draft Strategy and Rankings Detail: Second Base
The peak of the second base mountain is agreed upon. Cano, Pedroia, and Kinsler are all worthy candidates. Cano hardly has any holes in his game, outside of a lack of steals. Pedroia's disconcerting season last year can be put aside since his possible production is so elite. Kinsler's batting average has been a liability the last two years, but he makes up for it with his runs, home runs, and steals.
Things get interesting with Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill. Zobrist is eligible at shortstop and outfield, which gives your roster a lot of flexibility. Hill is a confusing player. In the last 2 years he decided to become a base stealer. He stole 23 bases his first 6 years combined. In the last 2 years he stole a combined 35 bases. That combined with his power and run potential makes him one of the players I'm targeting.
Omar Infante is one player I have ranked higher than many other websites. He does nothing particularly well, but he also has no great weakness. He has a chance to hit over .300 and provide decent value in all other categories. Don't expect him to steal as many bases as last year since he spent half the season with Ozzie Guillen. (who would make Miguel Cabrera into a base thief)
When drafting, it is important to have tiers for players. That way you know when a certain level of player is off the board and you can decide to wait until the next tier starts going off the board. Below are my tiers.
Tier 1
Robinson Cano
Tier 2
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Tier 3
Brandon Phillips
Ben Zobrist
Aaron Hill
Tier 4
Jason Kipnis
Danny Espinosa
Tier 5
Omar Infante
Neil Walker
Jose Altuve
Marco Scutaro
Rickie Weeks
Tier 6
Dan Uggla
Howie Kendrick
Daniel Murphy
Chase Utley
*stats are from http://www.baseball-reference.com/
Things get interesting with Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill. Zobrist is eligible at shortstop and outfield, which gives your roster a lot of flexibility. Hill is a confusing player. In the last 2 years he decided to become a base stealer. He stole 23 bases his first 6 years combined. In the last 2 years he stole a combined 35 bases. That combined with his power and run potential makes him one of the players I'm targeting.
Omar Infante is one player I have ranked higher than many other websites. He does nothing particularly well, but he also has no great weakness. He has a chance to hit over .300 and provide decent value in all other categories. Don't expect him to steal as many bases as last year since he spent half the season with Ozzie Guillen. (who would make Miguel Cabrera into a base thief)
When drafting, it is important to have tiers for players. That way you know when a certain level of player is off the board and you can decide to wait until the next tier starts going off the board. Below are my tiers.
Tier 1
Robinson Cano
Tier 2
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Tier 3
Brandon Phillips
Ben Zobrist
Aaron Hill
Tier 4
Jason Kipnis
Danny Espinosa
Tier 5
Omar Infante
Neil Walker
Jose Altuve
Marco Scutaro
Rickie Weeks
Tier 6
Dan Uggla
Howie Kendrick
Daniel Murphy
Chase Utley
*stats are from http://www.baseball-reference.com/
Saturday, February 23, 2013
2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base
Below are my first base rankings for 2013.
My rankings are based on a 10-team rotisserie with the following positions: (head-to-head roto/categories would benefit from these rankings as well)
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
- Joey Votto (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Albert Pujols (BA, R, HR, RBI) *also eligible at DH
- Prince Fielder (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Edwin Encarnacion (BA, R, HR, RBI) *also eligible at DH
- Buster Posey (BA, HR, RBI) *also eligible at C
- Billy Butler (BA, HR, RBI) *also eligible at DH
- Allen Craig (BA, R, HR, RBI) *also eligible at OF
- Adrian Gonzalez (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Joe Mauer (BA, R, RBI) *also eligible at C/DH
- Paul Goldschmidt (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB)
- Adam LaRoche (HR, RBI, -BA)
- Corey Hart (HR, R, RBI, -BA) *also eligible at OF
- Freddie Freeman (HR, R, RBI, -BA)
- Mark Trumbo (HR, RBI) *also eligible at OF/DH
- Eric Hosmer (SB, ok in other categories)
- Anthony Rizzo (BA, HR, RBI)
- Nick Swisher (HR, RBI, -BA) *also eligible at OF
- Chris Davis (HR, RBI, -BA) *also eligible at OF/DH
- Kendrys Morales (BA, HR, RBI) *also eligible at DH
My rankings are based on a 10-team rotisserie with the following positions: (head-to-head roto/categories would benefit from these rankings as well)
- 1 Catcher
- 1 First Baseman
- 1 Second Baseman
- 1 Shortstop
- 1 Third Baseman
- 1 Corner Infielder (1B/3B)
- 1 Middle Infielder (2B/SS)
- 1 Utility
- 5 Outfielders
- 9 Pitchers (mixture of Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers)
- 3 Bench Spots
- 1 Disabled List
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
- BA: Batting Average
- -BA: will hurt your overall Batting Average
- R: Runs
- HR: Homes Runs
- RBI: Runs Batted In
- S: Steals
*position eligibility based on ESPN's Fantasy Baseball rules
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Second Base
Below are my second base rankings for 2013.
My rankings are based on a 10-team rotisserie with the following positions: (head-to-head roto/categories would benefit from these rankings as well)
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
*position eligibility based on ESPN's Fantasy Baseball rules
- Robinson Cano (BA, R, HR, RBI)
- Dustin Pedroia (BA, R, HR, SB)
- Ian Kinsler (R, HR, SB, -BA)
- Brandon Phillips (BA, R, HR, SB)
- Ben Zobrist (R, HR, SB) *also eligible at SS/OF
- Aaron Hill (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB)
- Jason Kipnis (R, HR, SB, -BA)
- Danny Espinosa (HR, SB, -BA) *also eligible at SS
- Omar Infante (ok in every category)
- Neil Walker (BA, ok in other categories)
- Jose Altuve (BA, SB)
- Marco Scutaro (BA, R) *also eligible at SS
- Rickie Weeks (R, HR, SB, -BA)
- Dan Uggla (R, HR, -BA)
- Howie Kendrick (BA)
- Daniel Murphy (BA)
- Chase Utley (nothing particularly)
My rankings are based on a 10-team rotisserie with the following positions: (head-to-head roto/categories would benefit from these rankings as well)
- 1 Catcher
- 1 First Baseman
- 1 Second Baseman
- 1 Shortstop
- 1 Third Baseman
- 1 Corner Infielder (1B/3B)
- 1 Middle Infielder (2B/SS)
- 1 Utility
- 5 Outfielders
- 9 Pitchers (mixture of Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers)
- 3 Bench Spots
- 1 Disabled List
Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.
My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.
Key:
- BA: Batting Average
- -BA: will hurt your overall Batting Average
- R: Runs
- HR: Homes Runs
- RBI: Runs Batted In
- S: Steals
*position eligibility based on ESPN's Fantasy Baseball rules
Monday, February 18, 2013
Derrick Rose Improbable to Return
Derrick Rose
You've probably heard about the US Today story, but if you haven't, it appears D. Rose may not return this year. That's upsetting for a lot of fantasy owners who picked up Rose after hearing he was practicing with the team. All that good news appears to be for nothing. This works out for me in my fantasy leagues since I wasn't fast enough to pick him up when the good news first started appearing. Maybe he'll be back this year, the Bulls left that open as a possibility, but given recent news I would be surprised. I recommend dropping him or looking for a willing trade partner so you can get something in return.
You've probably heard about the US Today story, but if you haven't, it appears D. Rose may not return this year. That's upsetting for a lot of fantasy owners who picked up Rose after hearing he was practicing with the team. All that good news appears to be for nothing. This works out for me in my fantasy leagues since I wasn't fast enough to pick him up when the good news first started appearing. Maybe he'll be back this year, the Bulls left that open as a possibility, but given recent news I would be surprised. I recommend dropping him or looking for a willing trade partner so you can get something in return.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Baseball Draft Strategy: hot and cold players
2012 was a crazy year for baseball. Miguel Cabrera got the triple crown and yet he had to fight for the MVP award against rookie Mike Trout. This year a similar fight for the top spot continues in fantasy baseball. Do you take the known commodity in Cabrera or bet on what Trout could do with a full season? (he started the first month of last season in the minors)
It probably won't matter. As long as both guys remain healthy you should have a great start to your draft either way. Round 1 is full of great options. That's why round 1 doesn't matter as much as the rounds that follow.
My plan this year is to consider a couple unique strategies. One such strategy is to draft a guy who usually starts the season hot then trading him for a better player who usually starts the season cold and heats up as the year goes on. Now this isn't easy to predict I'm sure and could be completely wrong, but why not try.
Two great players for this strategy are Adam Jones and Aramis Ramirez. They don't play the same position so it won't be a perfect swap, but Jones usually starts hot and Ramirez usually starts cold. They should hit that sweet spot in May where Jones is a sell-high while Ramirez is a buy-low.
For his career, Ramirez is a .257 hitter in March/April and a .271 hitter in May. Compare that to June and July when he hits .301 and .290 respectively. His home runs go from 41 in May to 69 in August. Compare that to Jones who is a .276 hitter in March/April and a .298 hitter in May. In June and July he has hit .285 and .275 respectively. In May he's hit 21 home runs while in August he's hit only 12.
To really bring the point home, last year Ramirez started the season hitting .214 in March/April while hitting .373 in July. His home runs also went up every month through August. Jones started March/April hitting .333, but in July he hit .264. Jones hit 16 home runs in March-May, and only 16 more the rest of the season. While Ramirez hit 5 homes runs in March-May and 22 more the rest of the season.
Historical performance does not guarantee future performance but let's play out the scenario with last year's numbers. If you had traded Jones for Ramirez at the end of May last year you would have had a player who combined for a batting average of .321 and a home run total of 38. Compare that to Miguel Cabrera's 2012 season of a .330 batting average and 44 home runs, or Mike Trout's .326 batting average and 30 home runs.
Sure this strategy isn't perfect and it might not work, but if it does then you will have a great player while avoiding both player's streaky tendencies.
What are some crazy draft strategies you have used that either worked or failed miserably?
*stats are from http://www.baseball-reference.com/
It probably won't matter. As long as both guys remain healthy you should have a great start to your draft either way. Round 1 is full of great options. That's why round 1 doesn't matter as much as the rounds that follow.
My plan this year is to consider a couple unique strategies. One such strategy is to draft a guy who usually starts the season hot then trading him for a better player who usually starts the season cold and heats up as the year goes on. Now this isn't easy to predict I'm sure and could be completely wrong, but why not try.
Two great players for this strategy are Adam Jones and Aramis Ramirez. They don't play the same position so it won't be a perfect swap, but Jones usually starts hot and Ramirez usually starts cold. They should hit that sweet spot in May where Jones is a sell-high while Ramirez is a buy-low.
For his career, Ramirez is a .257 hitter in March/April and a .271 hitter in May. Compare that to June and July when he hits .301 and .290 respectively. His home runs go from 41 in May to 69 in August. Compare that to Jones who is a .276 hitter in March/April and a .298 hitter in May. In June and July he has hit .285 and .275 respectively. In May he's hit 21 home runs while in August he's hit only 12.
To really bring the point home, last year Ramirez started the season hitting .214 in March/April while hitting .373 in July. His home runs also went up every month through August. Jones started March/April hitting .333, but in July he hit .264. Jones hit 16 home runs in March-May, and only 16 more the rest of the season. While Ramirez hit 5 homes runs in March-May and 22 more the rest of the season.
Historical performance does not guarantee future performance but let's play out the scenario with last year's numbers. If you had traded Jones for Ramirez at the end of May last year you would have had a player who combined for a batting average of .321 and a home run total of 38. Compare that to Miguel Cabrera's 2012 season of a .330 batting average and 44 home runs, or Mike Trout's .326 batting average and 30 home runs.
Sure this strategy isn't perfect and it might not work, but if it does then you will have a great player while avoiding both player's streaky tendencies.
What are some crazy draft strategies you have used that either worked or failed miserably?
*stats are from http://www.baseball-reference.com/
Monday, February 11, 2013
Hidden Value: The Post-Rondo/Post-Sullinger Celtics
Though Rondo's injury is old news at this point (goodbye 10+ assists per game!) and Jared Sullinger is out for the season, now is the time to re-evaluate the Celtic's roster. By comparing season totals with statistics from the last 6 games, maybe we'll find some hidden value.
Avery Bradley (SG)
Since the Celtics only have 1 point guard on their roster besides Rondo, one would think a guard like Bradley might see an increase in value. Instead his value has stayed about the same. His assists have become a little more consistent, but at 2.5 per game following Rondo's injury I wouldn't say it's anything to be excited about. In the last 6 games his per game stats are 3.5 rbd, 1.2 stl, and 11 pts. His steals and points are a little higher because of the triple-overtime game Sunday so I'm not too excited. Nothing to see here.
Courtney Lee (SG)
Unfortunately you won't find any hidden value here. Since Rondo's injury his 3-pointers are at 0.8/game, assists are 3.2/game, and his points are 10/game. You can find better numbers on your waiver wire from guys like Kyle Korver.
Leandro Barbosa (PG)
His stats still aren't worth owning.
Kevin Garnett (PF, C)
Garnett's per game stats for the season are 7.5 rbd, 2.3 ast, and 15.2 pts on .506 shooting. Since Rondo's injury his per game stats are 9.5 rbd, 3 ast, and 16.8 pts on .530 shooting. So his value has gone up a little bit, but nothing too exciting. These numbers are only based on 6 games and I'm not seeing any major trend increasing Garnett's value. I wouldn't go chasing him.
Paul Pierce (SG, SF)
Pierce is the only one to see any real appreciable increase to his value since Rondo's injury.
His last 6 games: 2.2 3pm, 9.67 rbd, 6.83 ast, 19.17 pts
His stats for the entire season: 1.8 3pm, 6.0 rbd, 4.3 ast, 18.8 pts
Every category has seen an increase. Granted some of this is from that Sunday triple-overtime game, but I believe his stats - especially his assists - will continue to be higher than originally anticipated.
Bottom line, Paul Pierce is the only one to see any real increase in his fantasy value for the Celtics. It's not a secret that Pierce is a fantasy star, but maybe it is a secret that his value is going to increase as the season continues. This exercise was interesting but wasn't as useful as I expected. Still, we might find hidden value as other teams have injuries. The Celtics didn't do what I expected. No one stepped up to take Rondo's production in any real way. He's a great player with elite assists and great steals, but I thought an increase in minutes would bring value to some overlooked player in Boston. This time I was wrong.
Though this exercise proved unfruitful, I believe the process is a good one. Hopefully in the future we will find more useful hidden value.
*Stats from http://www.basketball-reference.com/
Saturday, February 9, 2013
Fantasy Basketball Mid-Season
It’s mid-season. At this point you have a good idea how your team is doing. Maybe it’s been ravaged by injuries (Rondo, Love, Gasol, Howard), maybe you’re sitting high at #1, or maybe your team is plain awful. You finally get to know how your draft turned out and the strengths and weaknesses of your team.
Now’s the time to shore up your team’s weaknesses and trade away some excessive strengths. This is the time to get creative. Go ahead and trade away Durant for Larry Sanders and Chris Paul. Maybe you need blocks, steals, and rebounds while being okay in points and 3-pointers. Sure this isn’t a great trade, but depending on your team it could help out for the second half. Of course, Chris Paul could never return from his bruised knee and the trade could be a complete bust. Just ask all those people who bought low on Pau Gasol prior to his injury. As Matthew Berry says, its your team.
Let me highlight a couple guys I think are worth considering on your team.
Tiago Splitter (.655 FG%, 8.1 Reb, 0.7 Blk, 13.8 Pts) last 30 days
You think it might be too late to save your field goal percentage, but it’s not. Depending on how far behind you are (My FG% is currently .4635 and the guy above me is at .4639) then you can still make a run at it. Maybe you won’t launch up to number 1, but picking up a point wherever you can in roto can save your season. In the last 30 days he is taking 8.5 shots per game and making 5.5 of them. That’s 65.5%! It’s not a ton of shots but it’s enough to make a difference. I believe his minutes will go up on this older Spurs team focusing on the playoffs.
Jose Calderon (.537 FG%, 2.1 3pm, 6.3 Ast, 13.8 Pts) last 30 days
Reports are he’ll be the #1 point guard in Detroit. I think his value will go up from here. Now is the time to trade for him if you need assists and 3’s. His field goal percentage is also really good for a point guard. They should go up from here.
Nikola Vucevic (.542 FG%, .731 FT%, 12.7 Reb, 1.3 Blk, 14.1 Pts) last 30 days
I’m still not seeing a lot of coverage on this guy. I picked him up for help in rebounds and blocks and I have been pleasantly surprised by his overall production. His points, field goal percentage, and even free throw percentage are very good for a big man.
*stats are from ESPN.com
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