Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Draft Strategy and Rankings Detail: Second Base

The peak of the second base mountain is agreed upon. Cano, Pedroia, and Kinsler are all worthy candidates. Cano hardly has any holes in his game, outside of a lack of steals. Pedroia's disconcerting season last year can be put aside since his possible production is so elite. Kinsler's batting average has been a liability the last two years, but he makes up for it with his runs, home runs, and steals.

Things get interesting with Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill. Zobrist is eligible at shortstop and outfield, which gives your roster a lot of flexibility. Hill is a confusing player. In the last 2 years he decided to become a base stealer. He stole 23 bases his first 6 years combined. In the last 2 years he stole a combined 35 bases. That combined with his power and run potential makes him one of the players I'm targeting.

Omar Infante is one player I have ranked higher than many other websites. He does nothing particularly well, but he also has no great weakness. He has a chance to hit over .300 and provide decent value in all other categories. Don't expect him to steal as many bases as last year since he spent half the season with Ozzie Guillen. (who would make Miguel Cabrera into a base thief)

When drafting, it is important to have tiers for players. That way you know when a certain level of player is off the board and you can decide to wait until the next tier starts going off the board. Below are my tiers.

Tier 1
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler

Tier 3
Brandon Phillips
Ben Zobrist
Aaron Hill

Tier 4
Jason Kipnis
Danny Espinosa

Tier 5
Omar Infante
Neil Walker
Jose Altuve
Marco Scutaro
Rickie Weeks

Tier 6
Dan Uggla
Howie Kendrick
Daniel Murphy
Chase Utley

*stats are from http://www.baseball-reference.com/

Saturday, February 23, 2013

2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base

Below are my first base rankings for 2013.

  1. Joey Votto (BA, R, HR, RBI) 
  2. Albert Pujols (BA, R, HR, RBI) *also eligible at DH 
  3. Prince Fielder (BA, R, HR, RBI) 
  4. Edwin Encarnacion (BA, R, HR, RBI) *also eligible at DH 
  5. Buster Posey (BA, HR, RBI) *also eligible at C 
  6. Billy Butler (BA, HR, RBI) *also eligible at DH 
  7. Allen Craig (BA, R, HR, RBI) *also eligible at OF 
  8. Adrian Gonzalez (BA, R, HR, RBI) 
  9. Joe Mauer (BA, R, RBI) *also eligible at C/DH 
  10. Paul Goldschmidt (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB) 
  11. Adam LaRoche (HR, RBI, -BA) 
  12. Corey Hart (HR, R, RBI, -BA) *also eligible at OF 
  13. Freddie Freeman (HR, R, RBI, -BA) 
  14. Mark Trumbo (HR, RBI) *also eligible at OF/DH 
  15. Eric Hosmer (SB, ok in other categories) 
  16. Anthony Rizzo (BA, HR, RBI) 
  17. Nick Swisher (HR, RBI, -BA) *also eligible at OF 
  18. Chris Davis (HR, RBI, -BA) *also eligible at OF/DH 
  19. Kendrys Morales (BA, HR, RBI) *also eligible at DH 

My rankings are based on a 10-team rotisserie with the following positions: (head-to-head roto/categories would benefit from these rankings as well)
  • 1 Catcher
  • 1 First Baseman
  • 1 Second Baseman
  • 1 Shortstop
  • 1 Third Baseman
  • 1 Corner Infielder (1B/3B)
  • 1 Middle Infielder (2B/SS)
  • 1 Utility
  • 5 Outfielders
  • 9 Pitchers (mixture of Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers)
  • 3 Bench Spots
  • 1 Disabled List 
It is usually hard to tell why a player is ranked where they are. If you play in roto or head-to-head roto then you need to how a certain player will help you. If you've been playing a while then you know that Michael Bourn will give you steals and not much else, but if you're new or a casual fan then you won't know this by the ranking alone.

Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.

My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.

Key:

  • BA: Batting Average
  • -BA: will hurt your overall Batting Average
  • R: Runs 
  • HR: Homes Runs
  • RBI: Runs Batted In
  • S: Steals

*position eligibility based on ESPN's Fantasy Baseball rules

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Second Base

Below are my second base rankings for 2013.

  1. Robinson Cano (BA, R, HR, RBI) 
  2. Dustin Pedroia (BA, R, HR, SB) 
  3. Ian Kinsler (R, HR, SB, -BA)
  4. Brandon Phillips (BA, R, HR, SB) 
  5. Ben Zobrist (R, HR, SB) *also eligible at SS/OF
  6. Aaron Hill (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB) 
  7. Jason Kipnis (R, HR, SB, -BA) 
  8. Danny Espinosa (HR, SB, -BA) *also eligible at SS
  9. Omar Infante (ok in every category)
  10. Neil Walker (BA, ok in other categories)
  11. Jose Altuve (BA, SB)
  12. Marco Scutaro (BA, R) *also eligible at SS
  13. Rickie Weeks (R, HR, SB, -BA)
  14. Dan Uggla (R, HR, -BA)
  15. Howie Kendrick (BA)
  16. Daniel Murphy (BA)
  17. Chase Utley (nothing particularly)

My rankings are based on a 10-team rotisserie with the following positions: (head-to-head roto/categories would benefit from these rankings as well)
  • 1 Catcher
  • 1 First Baseman
  • 1 Second Baseman
  • 1 Shortstop
  • 1 Third Baseman
  • 1 Corner Infielder (1B/3B)
  • 1 Middle Infielder (2B/SS)
  • 1 Utility
  • 5 Outfielders
  • 9 Pitchers (mixture of Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers)
  • 3 Bench Spots
  • 1 Disabled List 
It is usually hard to tell why a player is ranked where they are. If you play in roto or head-to-head roto then you need to how a certain player will help you. If you've been playing a while then you know that Michael Bourn will give you steals and not much else, but if you're new or a casual fan then you won't know this by the ranking alone.

Given this, in my rankings I have what categories (in parantheses) I expect a certain player to help in.

My general bias is towards home runs and batting average and away from steals. If you can find a guy who can help you in all three categories then take him, but if it's a steals specialist I would pass him by. Steals can be found off the waiver wire (such as Juan Pierre last year) or later in the draft, but batting average and home runs aren't as easy to come by and they often lead to other stats such as runs and RBI's.

Key:
  • BA: Batting Average
  • -BA: will hurt your overall Batting Average
  • R: Runs 
  • HR: Homes Runs
  • RBI: Runs Batted In
  • S: Steals


*position eligibility based on ESPN's Fantasy Baseball rules

Monday, February 18, 2013

Derrick Rose Improbable to Return

 Derrick Rose

You've probably heard about the US Today story, but if you haven't, it appears D. Rose may not return this year. That's upsetting for a lot of fantasy owners who picked up Rose after hearing he was practicing with the team. All that good news appears to be for nothing. This works out for me in my fantasy leagues since I wasn't fast enough to pick him up when the good news first started appearing. Maybe he'll be back this year, the Bulls left that open as a possibility, but given recent news I would be surprised. I recommend dropping him or looking for a willing trade partner so you can get something in return.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Baseball Draft Strategy: hot and cold players

2012 was a crazy year for baseball. Miguel Cabrera got the triple crown and yet he had to fight for the MVP award against rookie Mike Trout. This year a similar fight for the top spot continues in fantasy baseball. Do you take the known commodity in Cabrera or bet on what Trout could do with a full season? (he started the first month of last season in the minors)

It probably won't matter. As long as both guys remain healthy you should have a great start to your draft either way. Round 1 is full of great options. That's why round 1 doesn't matter as much as the rounds that follow.

My plan this year is to consider a couple unique strategies. One such strategy is to draft a guy who usually starts the season hot then trading him for a better player who usually starts the season cold and heats up as the year goes on. Now this isn't easy to predict I'm sure and could be completely wrong, but why not try.

Two great players for this strategy are Adam Jones and Aramis Ramirez. They don't play the same position so it won't be a perfect swap, but Jones usually starts hot and Ramirez usually starts cold. They should hit that sweet spot in May where Jones is a sell-high while Ramirez is a buy-low.

For his career, Ramirez is a .257 hitter in March/April and a .271 hitter in May. Compare that to June and July when he hits .301 and .290 respectively. His home runs go from 41 in May to 69 in August. Compare that to Jones who is a .276 hitter in March/April and a .298 hitter in May. In June and July he has hit .285 and .275 respectively. In May he's hit 21 home runs while in August he's hit only 12.

To really bring the point home, last year Ramirez started the season hitting .214 in March/April while hitting .373 in July. His home runs also went up every month through August. Jones started March/April hitting .333, but in July he hit .264. Jones hit 16 home runs in March-May, and only 16 more the rest of the season. While Ramirez hit 5 homes runs in March-May and 22 more the rest of the season.

Historical performance does not guarantee future performance but let's play out the scenario with last year's numbers. If you had traded Jones for Ramirez at the end of May last year you would have had a player who combined for a batting average of .321 and a home run total of 38. Compare that to Miguel Cabrera's 2012 season of a .330 batting average and 44 home runs, or Mike Trout's .326 batting average and 30 home runs.

Sure this strategy isn't perfect and it might not work, but if it does then you will have a great player while avoiding both player's streaky tendencies.

What are some crazy draft strategies you have used that either worked or failed miserably?

*stats are from http://www.baseball-reference.com/

Monday, February 11, 2013

Hidden Value: The Post-Rondo/Post-Sullinger Celtics


Though Rondo's injury is old news at this point (goodbye 10+ assists per game!) and Jared Sullinger is out for the season, now is the time to re-evaluate the Celtic's roster. By comparing season totals with statistics from the last 6 games, maybe we'll find some hidden value.

Avery Bradley (SG)
Since the Celtics only have 1 point guard on their roster besides Rondo, one would think a guard like Bradley might see an increase in value. Instead his value has stayed about the same. His assists have become a little more consistent, but at 2.5 per game following Rondo's injury I wouldn't say it's anything to be excited about. In the last 6 games his per game stats are 3.5 rbd, 1.2 stl, and 11 pts. His steals and points are a little higher because of the triple-overtime game Sunday so I'm not too excited. Nothing to see here.

Courtney Lee (SG)
Unfortunately you won't find any hidden value here. Since Rondo's injury his 3-pointers are at 0.8/game, assists are 3.2/game, and his points are 10/game. You can find better numbers on your waiver wire from guys like Kyle Korver.

Leandro Barbosa (PG)
His stats still aren't worth owning.

Kevin Garnett (PF, C)
Garnett's per game stats for the season are 7.5 rbd, 2.3 ast, and 15.2 pts on .506 shooting. Since Rondo's injury his per game stats are 9.5 rbd, 3 ast, and 16.8 pts on .530 shooting. So his value has gone up a little bit, but nothing too exciting. These numbers are only based on 6 games and I'm not seeing any major trend increasing Garnett's value. I wouldn't go chasing him.

Paul Pierce (SG, SF)
Pierce is the only one to see any real appreciable increase to his value since Rondo's injury.

His last 6 games: 2.2 3pm, 9.67 rbd, 6.83 ast, 19.17 pts
His stats for the entire season: 1.8 3pm, 6.0 rbd, 4.3 ast, 18.8 pts

Every category has seen an increase. Granted some of this is from that Sunday triple-overtime game, but I believe his stats - especially his assists - will continue to be higher than originally anticipated.

Bottom line, Paul Pierce is the only one to see any real increase in his fantasy value for the Celtics. It's not a secret that Pierce is a fantasy star, but maybe it is a secret that his value is going to increase as the season continues. This exercise was interesting but wasn't as useful as I expected. Still, we might find hidden value as other teams have injuries. The Celtics didn't do what I expected. No one stepped up to take Rondo's production in any real way. He's a great player with elite assists and great steals, but I thought an increase in minutes would bring value to some overlooked player in Boston. This time I was wrong.

Though this exercise proved unfruitful, I believe the process is a good one. Hopefully in the future we will find more useful hidden value.

*Stats from http://www.basketball-reference.com/

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Fantasy Basketball Mid-Season


It’s mid-season. At this point you have a good idea how your team is doing. Maybe it’s been ravaged by injuries (Rondo, Love, Gasol, Howard), maybe you’re sitting high at #1, or maybe your team is plain awful. You finally get to know how your draft turned out and the strengths and weaknesses of your team.

Now’s the time to shore up your team’s weaknesses and trade away some excessive strengths. This is the time to get creative. Go ahead and trade away Durant for Larry Sanders and Chris Paul. Maybe you need blocks, steals, and rebounds while being okay in points and 3-pointers. Sure this isn’t a great trade, but depending on your team it could help out for the second half. Of course, Chris Paul could never return from his bruised knee and the trade could be a complete bust. Just ask all those people who bought low on Pau Gasol prior to his injury. As Matthew Berry says, its your team.

Let me highlight a couple guys I think are worth considering on your team.

Tiago Splitter (.655 FG%, 8.1 Reb, 0.7 Blk, 13.8 Pts) last 30 days
You think it might be too late to save your field goal percentage, but it’s not. Depending on how far behind you are (My FG% is currently .4635 and the guy above me is at .4639) then you can still make a run at it. Maybe you won’t launch up to number 1, but picking up a point wherever you can in roto can save your season. In the last 30 days he is taking 8.5 shots per game and making 5.5 of them. That’s 65.5%! It’s not a ton of shots but it’s enough to make a difference. I believe his minutes will go up on this older Spurs team focusing on the playoffs.

Jose Calderon (.537 FG%, 2.1 3pm, 6.3 Ast, 13.8 Pts) last 30 days
Reports are he’ll be the #1 point guard in Detroit. I think his value will go up from here. Now is the time to trade for him if you need assists and 3’s. His field goal percentage is also really good for a point guard. They should go up from here.

Nikola Vucevic (.542 FG%, .731 FT%, 12.7 Reb, 1.3 Blk, 14.1 Pts) last 30 days
I’m still not seeing a lot of coverage on this guy. I picked him up for help in rebounds and blocks and I have been pleasantly surprised by his overall production. His points, field goal percentage, and even free throw percentage are very good for a big man.


*stats are from ESPN.com